President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in bringing Greenland under US control is generating buzz in online prediction markets, though most traders are betting against a rapid deal. While Trump’s idea isn’t new, the odds of the US taking formal ownership of the vast Arctic island by the end of this year remain slim, according to market data.
The odds of it happening have doubled today.https://t.co/8yhU5SWnmk
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 7, 2026
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, the question of whether Trump will secure Greenland for the US by year’s end has attracted over $2 million in bets since late December. As of Wednesday, traders put the odds at just 14%, making it one of the platform’s most popular wagers but not one they expect to pay out soon.
A separate market on Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, looks further ahead. Traders there are considering whether any part of Greenland will come under US ownership during Trump’s current term, which runs through 2029. The odds for some form of acquisition were higher, sitting at 43%, though trading activity was lighter, totaling about $644,000 over the past year.
Prediction markets let participants buy and sell “yes” or “no” shares tied to real-world events. The price of these shares reflects the collective judgment — or skepticism — of traders about a particular outcome. In this case, the divergent odds across platforms highlight broad doubts about a swift move, but a greater willingness to entertain a longer-term possibility.
The contrasting bets also point to the complexity of these markets. Different platforms pose slightly different questions and define outcomes in unique ways, which can lead to varying results and heated debate. For example, recent controversy on Polymarket involved a market on US military action in Venezuela, with some traders disputing how the event was ruled.
For the Greenland market, Polymarket specifies that US sovereignty would mean a transfer of most of Greenland from Danish to American governance, resolved by official statements or broad media consensus, even before a formal handover. Kalshi, on the other hand, is focused on the prospect of a purchase — not a military takeover — and has seen interest surge as Trump’s intentions draw global headlines.
This week, the White House said it was exploring “several ways” to pursue Trump’s Greenland goal, sparking pushback from Denmark and other NATO allies. European leaders urged respect for both Greenland’s and Denmark’s territorial integrity.
