TD Cowen Predicts Onchain Capital Could Surpass $100 Trillion Within Five Years as Tokenization Accelerates

TD Cowen Predicts Onchain Capital Could Surpass $100 Trillion Within Five Years as Tokenization Accelerates

The movement to bring traditional assets onto blockchain rails is gaining serious momentum. According to a new report from TD Cowen, the value of onchain capital — assets represented or settled on blockchains — could soar from around $4.6 trillion today to more than $100 trillion within five years, driven by rapid adoption of tokenization across global finance.

The bank’s analysts, who attended Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in London, said the shift toward blockchain-based infrastructure is happening faster than expected, fueled by both regulatory tailwinds and growing interest from major financial institutions. Tokenization, they noted, is being embraced not for hype but for its tangible advantages: lower transaction costs, faster settlements, and programmable finance that integrates directly with capital markets systems.

TD Cowen highlighted that the concept has moved beyond theory. Banks like JPMorgan, Bank of America, Euroclear, and Tradeweb are now exploring blockchain protocols to streamline asset movement. At the same time, BNY Mellon is testing tokenized deposits to modernize payment systems, and BlackRock is evaluating ways to tokenize funds linked to real-world assets such as Treasuries and real estate.

Ethereum Transaction Volume and Average Ether Price by Quarter, 4Q20 to 3Q25 | Images: TD Cowen

Tokenization refers to creating digital representations of traditional assets — from bonds and equities to real estate — allowing them to settle instantly and operate around the clock while interacting seamlessly with smart contracts. This evolution could eventually reshape how global markets function, making them faster, more transparent, and more efficient.

Governments are taking note as well. The U.K. plans to appoint a “digital markets champion” to coordinate tokenization efforts across wholesale financial markets. In the U.S. and Europe, large banks are exploring the launch of a joint stablecoin product, which could complement tokenized deposits and provide a reliable onchain cash equivalent for transactions.

Investor demand appears to be rising too. A State Street survey found that most institutional investors expect their digital-asset exposure to double within three years, and over half believe that 10%–24% of their portfolios will be tokenized by 2030. Robinhood’s CEO echoed that sentiment, predicting that most major markets will have a clear tokenization framework by the end of the decade.

“While the path remains bumpy, political and regulatory progress has far exceeded what we had expected even two years ago,” TD Cowen analysts wrote. “Onchain capital formation could be $100 trillion or more in five years, in our opinion, suggesting the trend is too big to ignore.”

The bank argues that if major institutions converge on common technical standards, tokenization could soon reach a tipping point, transforming financial markets from pilot projects to large-scale production.

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