Solana Co-Founder Warns Bitcoin Faces 5-Year Quantum Deadline

Bitcoin’s long-term security is back in the spotlight after Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko warned that quantum computing could threaten the network within the next five years. Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko said Bitcoin must adopt quantum-resistant cryptography by 2030 or risk catastrophic breaches.

Quantum Risks Accelerated by AI

Yakovenko argued that the rapid pace of artificial intelligence (AI) research is accelerating progress in quantum computing. He suggested there’s now a “50/50” chance Bitcoin’s cryptography could be broken by 2030.

“AI’s pace is astonishing. Research papers are being implemented at unprecedented speed,” Yakovenko said, noting that companies like Google and Apple have already adopted quantum-safe tools.

While engineers face years of technical work to implement post-quantum protections, he framed the broader impact as transformative: “For engineers it’s years of work, but for everyone else, quantum computing is a massive opportunity.”

Governments and Tech Giants Are Preparing

Yakovenko’s warning comes as regulators and major tech firms push hard toward quantum readiness:

• NIST Standards: In 2024, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology finalized new post-quantum standards, including ML-KEM and ML-DSA, which are now global benchmarks.
• NSA Deadlines: The National Security Agency’s CNSA 2.0 plan requires full adoption of post-quantum algorithms by 2033.
• Central Banks: The Bank for International Settlements urged banks to adopt “cryptographic agility” to avoid systemic financial risks.
• Tech Milestones: Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip (2024) aims to scale toward one million qubits, while IBM plans to deploy its Quantum Starling system in 2029 with 20,000 times today’s computing power.

Governments are also taking precautions. El Salvador, one of the few nations holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet, recently split its reserves across multiple wallets to reduce exposure to a potential future quantum attack.

Experts Split on Timeline

The crypto and research community remains divided on whether Yakovenko’s five-year warning is realistic.

• Warning camp: Quantum AI researcher Craig Gidney and Naoris Protocol’s David Carvalho argue Bitcoin’s elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) could be broken within five years. Capriole Investments’ Charles Edwards has suggested that 2,500 logical qubits may be enough to crack Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing within the next decade.
• Skeptical camp: Others believe the danger is overstated. Blockstream CEO Adam Back said in April 2025 that quantum computers are still “decades away” from being a real threat. MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor called quantum fears “mostly marketing,” pointing instead to phishing and social engineering as greater risks.

Recent Breakthroughs Highlight the Debate

On September 4, 2025, IBM hobbyist Steve Tippeconnic used the company’s 133-qubit Heron processor to break a six-bit elliptic curve key with a Shor-style attack. Researcher Ben Sigman explained this was proof that deep quantum circuits can now run on real hardware, but emphasized the limits: a six-bit key has only 64 possibilities, trivial for classical computers to solve instantly.

Scaling this experiment to Bitcoin’s 256-bit elliptic curve signatures would require millions of error-corrected qubits—something still thought to be at least a decade away. Sigman highlighted a different risk: “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks, where encrypted data is stored today and unlocked in the future as quantum capabilities mature.

Can Bitcoin Adapt?

For now, Bitcoin remains secure. Developers have suggested upgrades like post-quantum signature schemes (including NIST’s Dilithium) could be introduced without requiring disruptive hard forks.

Still, Yakovenko’s comments underscore a growing consensus: even if quantum threats are a decade or more away, preparing early may be Bitcoin’s best defense.