Polymarket Removes Nuclear Detonation Event Contract

Polymarket pulled a nuclear detonation event contract after it drew at least $650,000 in trading volume. The decision follows mounting backlash over prediction markets tied to war and loss of life.

The market, titled “Nuclear weapon detonation by…?”, offered resolution timelines including March 31, June 30, and before 2027. After criticism intensified, the page was replaced with a notice stating the event had been archived. Polymarket also deleted a post on X that had cited a 22% implied probability of a detonation this year.

Are War-Linked Prediction Markets Facing A Ban?

The controversy adds pressure to a sector already under regulatory review in Washington. Critics argue that contracts tied to military actions could allow traders with non-public information to profit from geopolitical events. That concern escalated after onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps reported that several newly created wallets earned roughly $1 million betting on U.S. military strikes against Iran shortly before the attacks occurred.

The issue is not isolated to Polymarket. Rival platform Kalshi faced scrutiny over a contract tied to whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from power, prompting the company to invoke a “death carveout” clause and settle at the last traded price. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said Friday that regulated prediction markets are not permitted to list war-related contracts.

Regulatory signals are sharpening. Last week, six Democratic senators led by Adam Schiff urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to prohibit contracts tied to an individual’s death, citing examples on Polymarket. CFTC Chair Michael Selig said Tuesday that the agency is preparing new rulemaking and guidance for event contracts, telling industry participants to “stay tuned.”

NEWS: Sen. Schiff Urges CFTC Chair Selig to Uphold Law, Prohibit Prediction Markets Incentivizing Physical Injury, Death or War

Washington, D.C. — Today, U.S. Senator Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, led five Senators in urging Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig to uphold U.S. law and take action to halt prediction contracts that involve betting on physical injury, death or war, and to vigorously enforce the law through oversight and regulation of this market.

Senator Schiff

For operators, the next inflection point will be formal CFTC proposals defining permissible categories for event markets. If federal guidance narrows the scope of geopolitical contracts, platforms may be forced to redesign product offerings or shift toward regulated jurisdictions.