Polymarket traders priced a 63% probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran as tensions escalated over the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The surge reflects rising geopolitical risk now feeding directly into crypto sentiment and broader risk assets.
U.S. President Donald Trump warned Sunday that American forces could target Iranian power plants if the strait remains closed. The threat followed last week’s strike on Iran’s Ghadir Bridge and comes after three weeks of halted maritime traffic through the key oil corridor.
Will Hormuz Closure Trigger Broader Market Shock?
The Strait of Hormuz typically carries 20% to 30% of global oil supply, making its closure a major supply shock. Brent crude settled above $109 per barrel, compared with roughly $85 earlier this quarter, underscoring the scale of disruption.
Trump signaled a narrow diplomatic window, saying a deal could emerge as early as Monday while also raising the possibility of seizing Iranian oil infrastructure. But Tehran has maintained its position, with officials indicating the strait will remain closed while compensation mechanisms are evaluated.
“Our armed forces would target any similar infrastructure… related to the United States,” said Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry.
Military officials added that retaliation would mirror any U.S. escalation, raising the risk of direct infrastructure conflict across energy assets.
Crypto markets showed early signs of strain as uncertainty deepened. Bitcoin recovered from recent lows near $66,000 to trade just under $69,200, while total market capitalization rose 2.2% over the same period, according to market data.
Still, sustained pressure from elevated oil prices and geopolitical instability could cap near-term upside for digital assets. The next catalyst remains Monday’s diplomatic outcome, which traders will watch closely for signals on whether risk pricing accelerates or unwinds.
