Polymarket has started opening access to its new U.S. app for users on the waitlist, marking the company’s first major return to the American market since early 2022. The blockchain based prediction platform had previously exited the country after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ruled that it operated an unregistered derivatives venue.
The landscape looks different now. The CFTC has softened its stance toward event-based contracts after years of treating them as tightly regulated binary options. Its legal defeat this year in a dispute with Kalshi over political betting helped shift the tone across the sector.
Polymarket cleared its final regulatory hurdle on November 25 when it received permission to operate through an Amended Order of Designation. The approval followed the company’s acquisition of licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse QCX for 112 million dollars, giving it a compliant structure for U.S. markets. Founder Shayne Coplan, who launched the platform in 2020 and has previously faced scrutiny from the Department of Justice over election markets, said the American version will lead with sports before expanding into a wider range of topics.
Sports remain the most competitive and uncertain frontier in this fast growing industry. Polymarket and Kalshi have each secured distribution arrangements with leagues and agencies, including the National Hockey League and the Professional Pickleball Association. They have also pushed for corporate partnerships. Kalshi teamed up with CNN, while Polymarket linked with PrizePicks and became the designated clearinghouse for DraftKings as it develops its own prediction product.
Major trading platforms are moving in as well. Robinhood entered football prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi after temporarily shelving its Super Bowl plans due to regulatory pressure. At points this year, Robinhood traffic has made up more than half of Kalshi’s activity.
Kalshi continues to face battles at the state level. Regulators in Nevada and New Jersey have challenged its sports offerings, and a federal judge ruled in late November that Kalshi must follow Nevada’s gaming rules.
Despite the complexities, both companies are expanding at a rapid pace. October set a record for event driven trading, with Kalshi reporting 5.81 billion dollars in volume compared with Polymarket’s 3.7 billion dollars. Polymarket is now seeking a valuation of up to 15 billion dollars after receiving 2 billion dollars in strategic funding from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. The company also brought on Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor earlier this year.
As Polymarket eases back into the United States, the broader prediction market sector appears to be moving from the fringes to the mainstream. The coming months will show how regulators, platforms, and users shape this next phase of growth.
