Opinion Labs clocked nearly $2 billion in notional wagers during the week ending Jan. 25, vaulting the Asia-centric prediction market past Polymarket and within striking distance of Kalshi. That eruption of volume hinted at a new centre of gravity for retail speculators—until the incentive engine sputtered six weeks later.
Opinion Labs did more volume than Polymarket in the month of January, $8B compared to $7.6B
— Elisa (optimism/acc) (@eeelistar) February 17, 2026
The weirdest part is, nobody seems to know it exists, neither is it ever seen on the TL
What is going on here? pic.twitter.com/SdDZwEBFLY
Backed by YZi Labs—the family office of former Binance chief Changpeng Zhao—Opinion went live in October and used a points scheme promising future token rewards to lure bettors. Web-traffic data from Similarweb shows 42 % of January visits came from Asia, dwarfing Polymarket’s 19 % and Kalshi’s 7 %. Artemis Analytics records trading shrinking to $604 million in the week to Feb. 22 and $4.14 billion for the month, a 47 % slide, while Polymarket and Kalshi grew 15 % and 16 %, respectively.
Heavy churn defines the platform. SK Securities analyst Cho Junkee calculated a turnover ratio—weekly volume versus open interest—of 15.32 for Opinion in late December, almost quadruple Polymarket’s 4.25. Is that genuine price discovery or traders round-tripping contracts to farm points? Junkee warned the recycling of capital can mask economic depth and distort headline figures.
“Points programs often drive inorganic, reward-driven volume that can drop sharply once incentives end,” said Kaviish Sethi, data engineer at Artemis Analytics, noting that Opinion’s ten busiest wallets accounted for roughly half the February retreat. Dovey Wan of Primitive Ventures sees the flip side, arguing the platform’s “strong local cultural instinct” could keep regional order books lively even after an airdrop.
Opinion raised an additional $20 million in early February from Hack VC, Jump Crypto and Primitive, earmarking the cash to double down on Asia-Pacific events before pivoting to global fixtures such as the 2026 World Cup and national elections. Whether the firm can convert points chasers into sticky liquidity when the token finally arrives will be the metric to watch.
