Kevin Warsh has moved to the top of the list to become the next chair of the US Federal Reserve, with prediction markets signaling overwhelming confidence that President Donald Trump is preparing to nominate him. Traders on Polymarket late Thursday priced Warsh’s chances at 93 percent, a sharp jump from just 39 percent earlier in the day, as anticipation built ahead of Trump’s expected announcement on Friday morning.
Similar sentiment appeared on Kalshi, another prediction platform, where Warsh’s odds climbed to 94 percent. The sudden shift followed multiple media reports suggesting the Trump administration has settled on Warsh as its preferred candidate to lead the central bank.
While no official confirmation has been made, market participants appear convinced. The final shortlist is widely believed to include Warsh alongside National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, and BlackRock fixed-income chief Rick Rieder, according to CNBC. Even so, traders have coalesced around Warsh as the clear favorite.
Jeff Cox
Warsh, 55, is a familiar figure in US economic policy circles. He served on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, spanning the global financial crisis and the early recovery period, under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Before joining the Fed, he worked as an investment banker at Morgan Stanley and later became a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.
His experience and profile have long made him a contender for senior economic roles. This is not the first time Warsh has been mentioned as a potential Fed chair, but the latest surge in prediction market odds suggests his prospects may now be stronger than ever.
Warsh is generally viewed as a monetary policy hawk, known for prioritizing inflation control and advocating a disciplined, rules-based approach to central banking. That reputation has drawn both praise and skepticism, particularly given President Trump’s public calls in the past for lower interest rates and faster monetary easing.
Some analysts see Warsh as a candidate who could balance credibility with flexibility. James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, said Warsh offers a rare combination of experience and adaptability.
“Kevin Warsh remains the strongest choice for Fed chair because he uniquely combines market credibility with a clear willingness to reset policy in a more disciplined, rules-based direction,” Thorne said.
For the record.
— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) January 29, 2026
Why I Suggest Warsh Is the Best Pick for the Fed.
IMHO: Kevin Warsh remains the strongest choice for Fed chair because he uniquely combines market credibility with a clear willingness to reset policy in a more disciplined, rules‑based direction. He is…
He described Warsh as structurally hawkish on inflation but tactically open to meaningful rate cuts when economic conditions justify them.
Thorne also noted that Warsh’s prior service at the Fed and his relationships with influential market figures and Trump allies could allow for closer coordination between the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the White House, while still preserving the institution’s legitimacy.
Others are more cautious. Critics argue that Warsh’s long-standing hawkish stance may clash with political pressure for aggressive easing. Renaissance Macro Research questioned whether Warsh’s more recent dovish comments reflect a genuine shift or a temporary adjustment.
“Kevin Warsh has been a monetary policy hawk his entire career,” the firm wrote in a post on X, suggesting his current tone could be driven by convenience rather than conviction.
Kevin Warsh has been monetary policy hawk his entire career and most importantly, during a time when the labor markets fell out of bed. His dovishness today stems from convenience. The President risks getting duped.
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) January 30, 2026
Warsh has also drawn attention for his views on digital assets. In a 2018 Wall Street Journal opinion piece, he described Bitcoin as a potential “sustainable store of value, like gold,” while cautioning readers to pay attention to its volatility. His comments continue to resonate as cryptocurrencies gain broader acceptance in global financial markets.
Alex Krüger, an economist and crypto trader, noted that Warsh’s history complicates simple labels. He argued that while Warsh’s record as a Fed governor is mixed, a former inflation hawk advocating policy easing carries unique credibility. Krüger added that other rumored candidates, including Rieder and Hassett, might be more immediately supportive of risk assets.
As markets await President Trump’s announcement, the sharp move in prediction market odds underscores how strongly investors believe the decision has already been made. Whether Warsh ultimately gets the nomination or not, the episode highlights the growing influence of real-time market forecasting in shaping expectations around major policy decisions.
If confirmed, Warsh would step into the role at a pivotal moment for the global economy, with inflation trends, interest rates, and financial stability all under close scrutiny. For now, all eyes remain on Friday morning.
