Michael Saylor’s company Strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, may face significant outflows if MSCI and other major index providers decide to remove it from their equity benchmarks. That warning comes from JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who outlined the risks in a new report.
Strategy’s stock has fallen faster than bitcoin in recent months. According to the analysts, part of that decline reflects a shrinking valuation premium that some investors already viewed as hard to justify. The more recent drop appears tied to concern that the firm may lose its place in several key indices.
At the moment, Strategy is included in major benchmarks such as the Nasdaq 100, MSCI USA, and MSCI World. JPMorgan estimates that around 9 billion dollars of its 50 billion dollar market value sits in passive funds tied to those indices. That exposure has allowed both retail and institutional investors to gain indirect bitcoin exposure through traditional investment vehicles. A removal would likely reverse that flow.
The analysts wrote that exclusion could put strong pressure on the company’s valuation because passive index trackers account for a large share of its shareholder base. They estimate potential outflows of 2.8 billion dollars if MSCI removes the stock, and as much as 8.8 billion dollars if other index providers follow. While active managers do not have to follow index changes, the analysts noted that any removal would still send an unfavorable signal and could make future fundraising more difficult. Lower trading volumes and reduced liquidity could also make the stock less appealing to large investors.
They also highlighted that Strategy’s ratio of total market value to the value of its bitcoin holdings has dropped to its lowest level since the pandemic. If MSCI moves ahead with its proposal, that ratio could move even closer to one, which would effectively value the company almost entirely as a bitcoin holding vehicle.
MSCI is reviewing a rule change that would exclude companies whose primary activity is managing bitcoin or other digital asset treasuries when those holdings make up at least half of total assets. The consultation period runs through the end of December, with final results expected on January 15, 2026. Any changes would take effect during the February 2026 index review. JPMorgan called the January decision a pivotal moment for Strategy’s stock.
