Is Altcoin Season Finally Near? Deribit Analyst Weighs In

Ethereum’s rally, dovish central banks, and new stimulus measures have reignited talk of an impending “altcoin season.” But experts say not all the signs are there yet.

What’s Behind the Altcoin Season Buzz?

In crypto circles, altcoin season is like the gold rush—when money starts flowing out of Bitcoin and Ethereum into smaller, riskier tokens, often fueling triple-digit gains.

Lately, traders have been asking if that moment is finally on the horizon. Ethereum has outperformed, China just announced a new economic stimulus package, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling possible rate cuts this September.

On paper, these are the kinds of macro shifts that often trigger a wave of risk-taking. Yet, according to Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit (a Coinbase-owned exchange), the evidence still isn’t strong enough to confirm altcoin season has arrived.

Macro Tailwinds Give Crypto a Boost

At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that “the shifting balance of risks” could justify easing monetary policy later this year. Lower interest rates generally push investors toward higher-risk assets—including crypto.

Meanwhile, Beijing’s new stimulus is seen as a sign that China is also loosening financial conditions to support growth.

“Loosening central bank policies can reduce yields on safer assets and inject liquidity into the financial system… As a high-beta risk asset, crypto tends to amplify what’s happening in equities,” Péquignot told . “When liquidity is more abundant, speculative flows increase.”

Ethereum’s price jump following Powell’s remarks only added fuel to the narrative. Inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs further reinforced the idea that investors are willing to take on more risk.

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: A Key Indicator

One of the most important signals analysts watch is the ETH/BTC ratio-a measure of how Ethereum is performing compared to Bitcoin.

“The ETH/BTC ratio typically acts as a leading indicator,” Péquignot explained. “When Bitcoin underperforms, investors often show more appetite for higher-risk crypto assets.”

So far, ETH has strengthened against BTC, sparking cautious optimism. Still, that momentum hasn’t spilled over into mid- and small-cap altcoins, which remain largely flat.

Why It’s Not Altcoin Season Yet

A true altcoin season requires broad participation. Analysts often use the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index, which considers whether 75% of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over 90 days.

Right now, that index sits at 44 out of 100—well below the threshold. At the same time, Bitcoin continues to dominate, accounting for nearly 58% of total market value, its strongest grip in five years.

“Bitcoin remains the primary catalyst for institutional allocation,” Péquignot said. Until that dominance weakens, capital is unlikely to rotate heavily into altcoins.

What Would Confirm Altcoin Season?

According to Péquignot, several conditions need to align before declaring the start of altcoin season:

• Sustained ETH/BTC breakout, showing Bitcoin weakness.
• Falling BTC dominance, signaling capital rotation.
• Altcoin Season Index above 75, proving broad altcoin strength.
• Retail inflows, seen in on-chain activity, social media chatter, and rising trading volumes.

In short: Ethereum leading isn’t enough. The rest of the market has to follow.

Risks That Could Derail Momentum

Even if conditions improve, risks remain.

• Sticky inflation could force central banks to tighten again, hitting risk assets.
• High leverage in crypto often leads to sharp corrections when trades unwind.
• Trade policy uncertainty, especially shifting U.S. tariffs, could spook investors.

“As altcoin rallies are fouled by retail greed and leverage, overcrowded or disappointing narratives can lead to liquidations that cut short any rally,” Péquignot cautioned.

The Waiting Game

Altcoin season hasn’t arrived yet—but the foundations are being laid. Macro tailwinds, Ethereum’s strength, and institutional flows are creating the right backdrop. Still, without a broader market rotation away from Bitcoin, it remains more hope than reality.

For now, investors are left waiting. But for the first time in a long time, the pieces for the next major crypto rotation may finally be falling into place.