Institutional Bitcoin Buying Surges as Retail Investors Pull Back, On-Chain Data Reveals
Despite ongoing global uncertainty and geopolitical tension, Bitcoin’s current market cycle may be far from over. On-chain metrics suggest a notable divergence in investor behavior: institutions are steadily increasing their exposure, while retail investors are quietly exiting the market.
Institutional Demand Outpaces Retail Activity
According to a detailed analysis by CryptoQuant’s on-chain researcher known as IT Tech, large Bitcoin holders—such as institutional funds and crypto-native whales—have significantly ramped up their accumulation over the past year. Wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more have added over 507,000 BTC in that time, now controlling more than 16.57 million BTC. This group is accumulating coins at an average rate of 1,460 BTC per day.
In stark contrast, retail wallets—those holding less than 1 BTC—have seen consistent outflows. These smaller holders currently own 1.69 million BTC, a decrease of 54,500 BTC from the previous year. The average daily outflow from retail wallets is about 220 BTC, reflecting a clear divergence in sentiment.
Notably, this institutional buying trend has shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price performance. With a correlation coefficient of +0.86, the data indicates that institutional demand increases as Bitcoin prices rise—suggesting confidence in the asset’s longer-term upside potential.
A Bull Market Without FOMO
Unlike previous bull cycles, the current rally lacks the hallmark signs of retail-driven euphoria. Instead of a retail frenzy, smaller investors appear to be taking profits or stepping away, even as prices recover from recent dips.
IT Tech suggests this absence of retail “FOMO” could actually be bullish for Bitcoin’s prospects: “This implies the bull run still has room to grow.”
Price Outlook: $109K Resistance in Sight
Following the recent ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin has shown renewed strength. As of the latest data, the cryptocurrency is trading at approximately $107,698, up 2% since the news.
Technical indicators support this momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 57.15, pointing to growing buying pressure without yet signaling overbought conditions. This leaves room for Bitcoin to test and potentially break through the key resistance level at $109,267.
Should the rally lose momentum, however, Bitcoin could find short-term support at $106,295. A breach below that level might trigger a deeper correction toward $103,952.