HBAR Fights to Hold $0.16 as One Bullish Signal Emerges

After a rough week in the crypto market, Hedera’s native token HBAR is struggling to stay above the key $0.16 support level. Momentum has faded, trading volumes are thinning, and trader sentiment is cautious at best. Still, one technical indicator hints that a short-term rebound may be possible — if the bulls can hold their ground.

A Sea of Bearish Signals

HBAR has spent much of October under pressure, and the charts are flashing red across several key metrics. The most notable warning comes from the looming “death cross” — when the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) dips below the 200-day EMA.

In simple terms, this crossover signals a potential shift from a neutral or bullish phase into a longer downtrend. If the death cross completes, it could accelerate selling pressure as traders exit positions or hedge further downside risk.

Other indicators paint a similar picture. The Money Flow Index (MFI) — which measures capital inflow and outflow using both price and volume — has weakened steadily since mid-July. After hovering around 55 earlier in October, it’s now down near 36, showing that retail traders are no longer “buying the dip.”

On the social side, HBAR’s dominance in crypto chatter briefly spiked to 1.49% on October 22, fueled by speculation over ETF filings that mentioned the token. But the excitement was short-lived — that number has since fallen to 0.51%, according to Santiment data.

Together, these signals highlight a market losing steam: weak participation, fading hype, and a technical structure that leans bearish unless buyers step in soon.

A Glimmer of Hope: Bullish RSI Divergence

Despite the heavy sentiment, not all indicators are negative. Between June 22 and October 10, HBAR’s price recorded lower lows, but its Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which tracks momentum — made higher lows over the same period.

This setup is known as a bullish divergence, a classic early sign that selling pressure could be weakening. If it holds, HBAR might see a short-term rebound toward $0.18, with $0.19 as the next potential resistance level. A break above $0.19 could open the door to $0.22, marking a stronger reversal.

However, if $0.16 fails to hold, the downside remains steep. A breakdown could drag the token toward $0.15 or even $0.12, especially if the death cross triggers wider technical selling.

HBAR is walking a tightrope. The fundamentals of the Hedera network remain strong, but short-term price action is dominated by technical and sentiment-driven factors. For now, all eyes are on the $0.16 level — a make-or-break point that could decide whether HBAR finds relief or faces another wave of losses.