Gemini Space Station shares are down 43% over the past 30 days and trade near $5.90, close to all-time lows. Yet Mizuho analysts argue much of the recent leadership turmoil may already be reflected in the price.
In a Wednesday note, Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins reiterated an “outperform” rating with a $26 price target. They described the departures of Gemini’s chief operating officer, chief financial officer, and chief legal officer as disappointing but wrote that the stock “likely already reflects a lot of this pain.” Preliminary revenue of $165 million to $175 million modestly exceeded Mizuho’s $168 million midpoint estimate, while adjusted EBITDA of roughly negative $257 million to negative $267 million trailed the firm’s prior forecast of negative $224 million.
Has The Selloff Overshot Fundamentals?
Mizuho pointed to cost-cutting measures, including a roughly 25% workforce reduction and exits from the UK, EU, and Australia, as steps that could support a path to profitability. The analysts characterized Gemini as a “crypto-heavy app,” suggesting that broader digital-asset market weakness has weighed on results alongside company-specific issues. Does a 43% monthly drop signal structural impairment or cyclical pressure tied to crypto volatility?
The firm continues to value Gemini at seven times estimated 2027 revenue, below the 10-times peer group median. That discount underpins the unchanged $26 target. In a more optimistic scenario featuring stronger monthly transacting user growth and faster margin recovery, Mizuho sees a potential $43 valuation, implying gains of more than 600% from current levels.
Conversely, a bear case assumes slower user expansion and a tougher operating backdrop, yielding an $8 target, roughly 35% above current trading levels. The next catalyst will be updated earnings guidance and user growth metrics, which could determine whether recent restructuring translates into measurable margin improvement.
