Mizuho has cut its price target for Gemini by more than half to $12, citing declining trading activity that is expected to pressure the exchange’s core revenue streams. The revision reflects a broader slowdown across crypto market volumes.
Analysts at Mizuho reduced their target from $26, pointing to weaker asset prices and reduced transaction activity on Gemini. Shares recently fell to an all-time low of $5.50 before a modest recovery, according to market data.
Can Card Growth Offset Declining Trading Revenue?
The downgrade highlights how closely exchange revenues remain tied to market conditions. Mizuho lowered its 2027 revenue forecast by roughly 24%, reflecting expectations of subdued trading volumes. In contrast, services revenue, including credit card and interest income, is projected to account for 43% of total revenue, up from earlier estimates near 36%.
Gemini’s credit card business has emerged as a key growth segment, generating more than $1.2 billion in transaction volume in 2025 and approximately $33 million in net revenue. Yet this contribution remains smaller relative to trading income, which continues to dominate overall performance. Can diversification meaningfully reduce reliance on volatile trading cycles?
Mizuho analysts said growth expectations are now “less aggressive,” even as the company continues to expand from a relatively low base. The softer outlook comes despite earlier assessments that much of Gemini’s downside had already been priced in during prior declines.
Cost-cutting measures may provide partial support. Gemini has reduced headcount by about 30% and exited several international markets, with expenses projected to fall roughly 12% by 2027. Additional reductions in cash compensation, estimated at 15% to 20%, could improve margins once restructuring costs subside.
The outlook now hinges on whether trading volumes stabilize or remain constrained by macro conditions. The next catalyst will be upcoming earnings signals on user activity and whether non-trading revenue can scale fast enough to offset continued pressure on the core exchange business.
