Figure Technology Solutions delivered a standout third quarter, with accelerating tokenized loan activity driving results well beyond Wall Street expectations, according to a new analysis from Bernstein. The research firm called the performance a “massive beat,” highlighting the company’s growing momentum across its blockchain-powered lending channels.
The company, founded by SoFi co-founder Mike Cagney and listed on the Nasdaq since September, reported about $156 million in adjusted revenue, roughly 30% above the consensus estimate of $119 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in near $86 million, topping expectations by about 60%.
Figure has quickly established itself as the largest independent non-bank HELOC originator in the U.S., and its Q3 numbers reinforced that lead. Total loan originations climbed 34% quarter-over-quarter to $2.5 billion, driven largely by a surge in home-equity lines of credit, which accounted for roughly $2.4 billion. While HELOCs typically see seasonal strength in the third quarter, Figure’s consumer loan growth far outpaced the broader market — rising around 70% year-over-year, compared to only 4% industrywide, Bernstein noted.
The company is also gaining traction beyond its core HELOC business. Newer products — including crypto-backed loans, DSCR loans, and small-business loans — generated about $80 million in originations, signaling early but meaningful diversification.
Tokenized Loans at the Core of Figure’s Growth
Partner-originated and tokenized loans remain central to Figure’s strategy. These channels accounted for roughly $1.9 billion, or 76%, of total loan volume in Q3. Figure-branded loans made up the remaining 24%.
Its flagship marketplace, Figure Connect, continued to expand, contributing around 46% of all loan activity — up from 42% in the previous quarter. Connect volumes reached an estimated $1.1 billion, representing a strong 48% quarter-over-quarter increase.
Bernstein cited rising take rates as another driver of profitability. Partner-branded and intermediated loans saw take rates increase by roughly 36 basis points to 4.2%, while Figure-branded loan take rates jumped 82 basis points to 7.1%. Combined with higher tokenized loan volume, Figure’s adjusted EBITDA margin improved to nearly 55%, up from about 47% in Q2. Operating expenses also grew at a slower pace than revenue, highlighting the company’s operating leverage.
Figure’s partner network continues to widen as well. Active partner counts grew from about 170 to 246 during the quarter, and Connect marketplace participants increased from 27 to 33.
Bernstein noted ongoing development in Figure’s DeFi stack — including rapid expansion of its YLDS stablecoin supply — though these initiatives have not yet contributed materially to revenue.
Analyst Outlook: Strong Long-Term Position, Some Macro Risks
Bernstein reaffirmed its outperform rating and $54 price target, which suggests roughly 56% upside from Thursday’s closing price of $34.59. Figure’s stock traded up about 4.2% in pre-market trading on Friday.
The analysts maintain that the long-term thesis for Figure hinges on structural growth in tokenized loan origination, particularly through Connect. However, they also acknowledged that broader macroeconomic factors — including interest rate trends and shifts in the private-credit cycle — could influence future results.
