Ethereum Eyes $3,000 as Institutional Interest Surges, But Retail Selling Slows Momentum
Ethereum is riding a wave of bullish sentiment, gaining nearly 10% over the past week, as growing institutional investment signals strong confidence in the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency. But while big players are doubling down, a lack of retail participation could stall Ethereum’s push toward the $3,000 mark—at least in the short term.
Ethereum Rallies in Bitcoin’s Shadow
Ethereum’s recent gains are closely tracking Bitcoin’s rise, with the ETH/BTC correlation coefficient climbing to 0.95—just shy of a perfect 1. This metric indicates that Ethereum is moving nearly in lockstep with Bitcoin, a trend that historically precedes joint rallies during bullish cycles.
With Bitcoin approaching its all-time high, Ethereum appears well-positioned to ride the momentum. In previous bull markets, such a tight correlation has often set the stage for synchronized price surges.
Institutions Are All In on ETH
Data from Glassnode shows a surge in institutional interest. The 7-day average of open interest in ETH futures on the CME has hit a record high of $3.34 billion, suggesting significant capital is entering the market from professional investors.
Open interest refers to the total number of unsettled futures contracts, and spikes typically signal increased trading activity and investor confidence in upcoming price movement.
Backing this up, ETH spot ETFs have recorded consistent weekly inflows since May 9, according to data from SosoValue. Just last week, more than $219 million flowed into ETH-backed funds—even as ETH traded mostly sideways.
Together, these metrics point to a growing conviction that Ethereum could break through the $3,000 barrier—especially with institutional players leading the charge.
But Retail Traders Are Pulling Back
Despite the rising tide of institutional money, Ethereum's short-term performance is being weighed down by a retreat from retail investors.
According to IntoTheBlock, wallet addresses holding ETH for less than 30 days—often referred to as “paper hands”—have reduced their balances by 16% since July 4. This group, typically more reactive and prone to emotional decision-making, plays a key role in short-term market dynamics.
As retail investors sell into strength, they increase downward pressure, making it harder for ETH to sustain its upward momentum. While institutions tend to hold through volatility, retail sentiment often acts as the immediate fuel for breakouts.
This divergence means Ethereum’s rally may stall unless a fresh wave of retail demand steps in. Without that support, ETH risks slipping below $2,745, despite the bullish backdrop from institutional activity.
What’s Next for Ethereum?
If retail participation returns and demand increases, Ethereum could break above $2,851 and aim for the next resistance level near $3,067.
Until then, price growth may remain muted, even as long-term indicators remain strong.