Elon Musk’s AI startup, xAI, has announced a new partnership that integrates its Grok conversational model with Kalshi, the only federally regulated exchange for event-based prediction markets in the U.S. The collaboration, revealed in a joint statement on X (formerly Twitter), gives Kalshi users direct access to Grok’s real-time analytics, enhancing their decision-making on trades tied to real-world events.
Effective immediately, Kalshi and xAI are partnering to bring Grok to prediction markets.
— xAI (@xai) July 24, 2025
Two of the fastest growing companies in America are now on the same team.@xAI 🤝 @Kalshi pic.twitter.com/MCh5eQd906
Kalshi users can now query Grok for on-chain data, historical probabilities, and current headlines before placing trades on outcomes like Federal Reserve decisions, political elections, or even entertainment awards. This marks the first time Grok will operate in a live trading environment, allowing xAI to refine the model’s probabilistic reasoning in high-stakes, real-time scenarios.
Founded by MIT alumni Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara in 2018, Kalshi runs a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated market where traders can speculate on yes-or-no contracts tied to future events. Each share pays out $1 if the prediction is correct and nothing if wrong. The New York-based exchange allows crypto deposits in BTC, SOL, USDC, and WLD, though all trades are settled in U.S. dollars. In November 2024, Kalshi processed over $1.4 billion in election-related contracts within just 11 days, according to data presented at the FIA Expo.
Kirsten Hyde
The integration follows Kalshi’s $185 million Series B funding round in June 2025, led by crypto investment giant Paradigm. That raise pushed Kalshi’s valuation to $2 billion. xAI, which develops Grok as a direct rival to models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, was valued at $80 billion on paper after a recent all-stock acquisition of X.
“Two of the fastest-growing companies in America are now on the same team,” xAI’s official account posted on X, signaling the broader ambition behind the collaboration.
The timing is notable. The partnership unfolds amid renewed scrutiny in Washington over retail access to political and event contracts. In June, the CFTC reopened public commentary on political betting after a federal appeals court sided with Kalshi in 2024, overturning the agency’s attempt to block election-related markets. As the debate continues, Kalshi’s collaboration with xAI could position it as a model for how AI and compliance can coexist in the prediction space.
Meanwhile, rival platform Polymarket, previously restricted in the U.S., is attempting a comeback through the acquisition of derivatives exchange QCEX — a move that could reignite competition in the regulated prediction market sector.
