Elon Musk Tweet Triggers PNUT Crypto Surge—But On-Chain Data Tells a Cautionary Tale

A cryptic tweet from Elon Musk sent the price of meme coin Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) soaring over 12% this week—but blockchain data suggests the rally may have been more smoke than fire.

Despite Musk making no mention of PNUT directly, crypto speculators jumped on the vague post, fueling a flurry of activity. Meme coin enthusiasts rushed in, driving the token up to $0.2398 from a pre-tweet price of $0.2136. However, a closer look at the timing and blockchain metrics paints a different picture—one that implies insiders may have moved before the public frenzy.

Early Movers In, Retail Left Holding the Bag

Blockchain data shows that $1.54 million worth of PNUT flowed onto exchanges on July 8—hours before Musk’s tweet went live. That inflow suggests some traders were preparing to sell into a coming price spike. And sell they did. About four hours after PNUT peaked, outflows surged again, with roughly $920,000 worth of tokens withdrawn. The sequence indicates that early participants likely locked in profits while retail investors were left chasing the top.

Funding Rate Shifts Show Cautious Optimism

Funding rates, a key indicator of trader sentiment in perpetual futures markets, also shifted after Musk’s post. PNUT’s rate had been negative for weeks—signaling that most traders were betting on a price drop. But by July 9, the funding rate edged closer to neutral at -0.0074%.

This subtle shift suggests a tentative change in sentiment. Some traders started opening long positions, but the rate staying in negative territory shows that the market still lacks confidence. It’s more of a toe-dip than a dive.

Technical Resistance Still in Play

From a charting perspective, PNUT faces strong resistance levels. After brushing past the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $0.2386 (based on July 3 swing levels), the coin failed to hold its gains. Key resistance remains at $0.245 and $0.256—zones that must be cleared to reignite bullish momentum.

Currently hovering near $0.22, PNUT is at a critical juncture. A solid move above $0.245 could signal a fresh uptrend, but if the price drops below $0.216 (the 0.786 Fib level and a major trendline), the bullish case breaks down, and short-term momentum turns bearish.