Crypto outflows from Iran’s largest exchange surged 700% to nearly $3 million on Saturday. The spike followed a U.S.- and Israeli-led airstrike that killed senior Iranian political and military figures, escalating regional tensions.
Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic said the surge occurred on Nobitex, which dominates Iran’s domestic crypto market. The platform enables users to convert rials into digital assets and withdraw them to non-custodial wallets, offering a pathway outside the traditional banking system. Elliptic CEO Tom Robinson said initial tracing suggests funds were routed to overseas exchanges that have historically received Iranian flows.
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Robinson wrote that the surge “potentially represents capital flight from Iran,” pointing to patterns consistent with prior geopolitical shocks. In January, additional U.S. sanctions triggered two separate spikes in outflows, while a government-imposed internet blackout on Jan. 9 also coincided with increased crypto activity, according to Elliptic and Chainalysis. The United Nations imposed further sanctions on Iran in 2025 over its nuclear program, adding pressure to the country’s financial system.
Iran has leaned on digital assets amid broad restrictions from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (US) and other global bodies. Elliptic reported in January that Iran’s Central Bank acquired approximately $507 million in USDT to support the rial. Nobitex alone has recorded $11 billion in historic inflows, compared with under $7.5 billion for the next ten largest Iranian exchanges combined, per Chainalysis. The platform’s estimated 11 million users processed $7.2 billion in transactions in 2025.
Still, broader crypto markets showed limited systemic strain despite the regional escalation. Onchain and derivatives indicators remained stable, and prices rallied Monday, according to earlier reporting. Whether sustained military conflict or additional sanctions drive further outflows from Iranian platforms will likely depend on both geopolitical developments and enforcement actions targeting offshore exchanges.
