Could Rising Tariffs Trigger Bitcoin’s Decoupling From Tech Stocks?
Bitcoin Rallies as Tech Stocks Slip—Is a Decoupling Finally Underway?
Bitcoin’s price has once again flirted with its all-time high, climbing above $110,000 late last night before sliding to around $108,600 by afternoon, marking a 1.4% dip over the past 24 hours. But behind the latest move is a familiar catalyst—short liquidations, not new investor inflows.
Market analyst Noelle Acheson noted in her Crypto is Macro Now newsletter that the rally mirrored a pattern seen just three weeks ago, when Bitcoin surged from $103,000 to nearly $112,000 in just two days. The driver then? A wave of leveraged short positions getting squeezed out—something we’re likely witnessing again now.
Yet while Bitcoin continues to trade like a high-volatility tech stock, recent data hints at a shifting dynamic that could challenge that narrative. Specifically, tariff policy—once viewed as a purely equities issue—is beginning to carve out a different path for crypto.
Bitcoin's Correlation Is Shifting
Currently, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq Composite sits at a high 0.81, showing that BTC remains closely linked to broader risk sentiment. However, its correlation with gold—a traditional safe-haven asset—has flipped negative, now resting at -0.07.
That’s significant. For years, the "Bitcoin is digital gold" narrative was a cornerstone of crypto's identity. Now, the asset seems more aligned with risk-on behavior than with inflation hedges. But even that alignment might be loosening as macroeconomic headwinds hit tech harder than crypto.
Case in point: While Bitcoin has rallied 29% since early April, the Nasdaq is up just under 12%, and the S&P 500 trails at 7%. Tech giants, which once led market recoveries, are faltering amid tariff uncertainty. Apple is down over 17% year-to-date. Alphabet has lost 5%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is up 16% in the same timeframe.
Could Trade Policy Push BTC Into Its Own Lane?
As the U.S. ramps up tariff tensions, Big Tech is increasingly exposed. Trade policy changes can hit supply chains, increase costs, and dampen international sales—all of which hurt margins and earnings.
So far in Q2, the eight biggest U.S. tech names (the "Magnificent Seven" plus Broadcom) have seen average earnings forecasts revised down by nearly 6%. That number improves only marginally if Tesla is excluded. Half of these companies are underperforming the broader S&P 500.
Bitcoin, by contrast, remains largely untouched by tariffs, supply chains, or cross-border production issues. Its global nature and decentralized framework may give it a relative advantage in a period when protectionist policies are reshaping the equity landscape.
That’s not to say BTC is immune to macroeconomic forces. Rate decisions, inflation data, and employment reports will always influence market sentiment. But the divergence in year-to-date performance between Bitcoin and major tech names suggests a potential decoupling may be starting.