The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) signaled it will defer to sports leagues after the NFL raised concerns about manipulation risks in prediction markets. The stance could reshape how platforms structure contracts tied to real-world events.
The NFL sent letters to platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, urging them to avoid markets based on easily influenced outcomes. These include single-play events, draft decisions, penalties, injuries, and even broadcast-related occurrences. The league warned such contracts could create incentives that compromise game integrity, according to reporting from ESPN.
David Purdum
Will Sports Leagues Shape Prediction Market Rules?
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the agency would give significant weight to league input when evaluating contract risk. Regulators are assessing whether certain markets are “readily susceptible to manipulation,” with leagues positioned as primary evaluators of those vulnerabilities. The approach signals a collaborative but potentially restrictive regulatory framework.
Examples of markets that the NFL is asking prediction markets to refrain from offering: pic.twitter.com/y9rjD4J79D
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) March 30, 2026
The debate comes as lawmakers consider broader restrictions. A bipartisan bill under discussion would prohibit federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports-related contracts altogether. At the same time, several U.S. states are pursuing legal challenges against such platforms, creating a fragmented regulatory environment. Could increased scrutiny limit the growth of prediction markets tied to mainstream events?
“If a league is telling us that a contract is going to be readily susceptible to manipulation, we’ll evaluate the risks there,” Selig said, adding that leagues are well positioned to assess integrity concerns.
The NFL has not publicly disclosed the full scope of its requests, and platform responses remain unclear.
Other leagues are taking a different approach. Major League Baseball recently partnered with Polymarket and entered an agreement with the CFTC to share data and monitor risks internally. This contrast highlights diverging strategies between prohibition and controlled collaboration.
Still, the next catalyst will be whether federal legislation or regulatory action formalizes limits on event-based contracts, potentially defining the boundaries of prediction markets in the U.S.
