Bitcoin’s attempt to kick off the year with renewed momentum has lost steam, as persistent selling pressure near key price levels continues to cap gains, according to new analysis from onchain data firm Glassnode.
After briefly breaking higher in early January, bitcoin failed to hold above $90,000 and retreated from highs near $98,000. That area has emerged as a major point of resistance, largely because it aligns with the average cost basis of recent buyers who appear willing to sell as prices revisit their entry levels.
Glassnode noted that the latest rejection mirrors market dynamics seen in early 2022, when repeated failures to reclaim recent buyers’ breakeven levels led to extended periods of sideways trading. In the current cycle, the firm says a similar “overhead supply” problem remains firmly in place.
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“Supply overhang persists, as recent buyers continue to face overhead resistance, constraining upside follow-through and keeping rallies vulnerable to distribution,” Glassnode analysts wrote.
Recent buyers drive selling pressure
Onchain data shows much of the selling has come from investors who accumulated bitcoin between early and mid-2025. As prices returned to that range, many opted to exit, adding to resistance. Loss realization has been concentrated among holders in the three-to-six-month bracket, while profit-taking has increasingly come from traders locking in relatively small gains rather than positioning for a sustained uptrend.
According to Glassnode, this combination is typical of low-conviction, transitional markets, where participants remain cautious and quick to reduce exposure.
Spot markets improve, but conviction remains weak
There are signs of modest improvement beneath the surface. Sell-side pressure across major exchanges has eased, and cumulative volume delta has tilted more toward buyers. Selling linked to Coinbase, which had been a notable source of distribution in recent months, has also slowed.
Even so, Glassnode remains cautious. Accumulation has been selective rather than broad-based, falling short of the steady demand usually seen during strong trend expansions. Institutional and corporate participation has also been uneven. Corporate treasury buying has been sporadic and driven by isolated events, offering limited ongoing support.
Derivatives markets reflect the same restraint. Futures volumes remain compressed, leverage use is subdued, and options markets show volatility repricing concentrated at the very short end of the curve, with little change in medium- or long-term expectations.
Macro pressure adds to volatility
Bitcoin’s latest pullback has unfolded alongside renewed stress in global markets. Turmoil in Japanese government bonds and rising geopolitical tensions prompted a broader repricing of risk assets, pushing BTC back below $90,000 and triggering more than $1 billion in liquidations.
At the same time, U.S. spot bitcoin and ether ETFs recorded nearly $1 billion in combined outflows, reversing the prior week’s inflows and highlighting fragile institutional sentiment.
Despite these headwinds, Glassnode cautioned against interpreting the move as a clear breakdown. Instead, the firm described the market as entering a pause shaped by limited participation rather than aggressive selling.
“The market appears to be quietly building a base,” the analysts said, suggesting that consolidation may continue as investors wait for a clearer catalyst capable of absorbing overhead supply and reigniting demand.
