Bitcoin options markets show concentrated call buying at the $80,000 and $90,000 strikes ahead of the March 27 expiry. The positioning suggests traders are preparing for a rebound toward $85,000 to $95,000 even as spot prices hover near $66,029, according to price data.
Onchain derivatives platform Derive said volatility has settled back into the 50% range after a brief early-February spike, a level historically linked to consolidation rather than capitulation. The 25-delta skew has rebounded from roughly -15% in late February to around -7%, indicating traders are easing aggressive downside hedges while keeping protection in place.
Are Derivatives Signaling A Bitcoin Base?
The March 27 expiry now carries the largest open interest across bitcoin options, with notable call accumulation at $80,000 and $90,000, according to Derive. Yet substantial put open interest remains clustered at $60,000 and $55,000, reflecting expectations that any drawdown would stay contained rather than cascade into forced selling.
Ethereum derivatives mirror the asymmetric structure. Derive flagged call build-up around the $3,500 strike and strong put demand near $1,800, signaling hedged upside exposure rather than outright bullish conviction.
Bitcoin briefly fell to $62,000 before rebounding toward the high-$68,000 range, data from Bybit and Block Scholes show. One-week at-the-money implied volatility climbed to about 60%, leaving the front end of the curve mildly inverted, while perpetual futures open interest continues to decline, suggesting limited appetite for leveraged risk.
“The crypto market is beginning to show early signs of stabilization after weeks of uncertainty,” said Dr. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Derive. He added that traders appear to be “quietly preparing for a recovery while still maintaining meaningful downside protection.”
Broader flows offer tentative confirmation. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded more than $1 billion in net inflows over the past three sessions, including $254.4 million on Thursday, after four consecutive months of net outflows, according to data.
Still, bitcoin remains on track for a fifth consecutive monthly decline as the $70,000 level caps rallies. The next catalyst may hinge on Federal Reserve policy signals and whether ETF inflows sustain through the March 27 options expiry.
