Bitcoin investors are beginning to feel renewed pressure, as onchain data shows holders are now realizing net losses for the first time in more than a year. According to a new report from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, the shift marks a clear change in market behavior after an extended period dominated by realized gains.
CryptoQuant said Thursday that the past 30 days signal a move away from profit-taking and toward loss realization, a pattern last seen in October 2023. The firm described the development as a “regime change” in onchain profit dynamics, noting that realized profit momentum has been weakening steadily since early 2024.
That slowdown has appeared in a series of lower profit peaks, recorded in January 2024, December 2024, July 2025, and October 2025. While bitcoin prices remained relatively elevated during much of that time, CryptoQuant said the underlying data pointed to fading strength beneath the surface.
Since December 23, 2025, bitcoin holders have collectively realized losses equivalent to as much as 69,000 BTC, the firm reported. At the same time, realized profit peaks have continued to decline, a trend CryptoQuant interprets as a sign that the current bull market may be losing momentum.
How realized profits and losses are measured
CryptoQuant’s analysis is based on onchain transaction data paired with market prices. Julio Moreno, the firm’s head of research, explained that each time bitcoin is transferred, the firm compares the price at the time of the transfer with the price at the previous movement of those coins.
“The difference determines whether that transfer represents a profit or a loss,” Moreno said, adding that all transfers are visible on the blockchain, while pricing data is sourced from exchanges.
Echoes of past market cycles
CryptoQuant noted that the current shift closely mirrors the transition from the 2021 bull market into the 2022 bear market. During that earlier cycle, realized profits peaked in early 2021, formed lower highs throughout the year, and eventually gave way to sustained net losses ahead of the broader market downturn.
Annual net realized profits are now falling toward levels last seen in March 2022, which marked the early phase of the previous bear market. CryptoQuant estimates current net realized profits at around 2.5 million BTC, down from roughly 4.4 million BTC in October and the lowest reading since March 2024. Net realized losses are following a similar trajectory to early 2022, when bearish conditions were already taking hold.
“Declining net realized profits indicate a loss of strength in the price of bitcoin,” the firm said.
CryptoQuant has been warning of a potential bear market for several weeks. In a recent update, it described bitcoin’s latest price rebound as a likely “bear market rally” rather than a sign of a sustained recovery.
As of the latest data, bitcoin is trading near $89,760, little changed over the past 24 hours.
