Bitcoin (BTC) has punched through the $112,000 resistance zone that had capped its rally for weeks, climbing to $115,104 at press time. The move has ignited hopes of a renewed push toward the $120,000 milestone, as long-term investors show no signs of letting go.
Holder Conviction Reaches 2025 Peak
Fresh on-chain data from Glassnode highlights just how committed Bitcoin holders remain. The Holder Retention Rate — which tracks the share of addresses keeping BTC across consecutive 30-day periods — has surged to 80.49%, its highest level of the year.
What makes this jump significant is the context: Bitcoin spent most of August in a tight, sideways range, typically a period that shakes out weaker hands. Instead, retention climbed. In other words, the majority of investors chose to hold through the chop, reinforcing Bitcoin’s reputation as a long-term bet rather than a short-term trade.
Leverage on the Rise as Traders Double Down
Meanwhile, derivatives traders are also flashing confidence. Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) across exchanges has risen to 0.26, a yearly high.
The ELR measures how much leverage traders are using relative to exchange reserves. A rising figure means traders are piling into riskier, leveraged positions — a sign that market conviction is heating up.
While leverage can amplify gains, it also magnifies risks. If sentiment flips, overextended traders could face liquidations, adding fuel to a downturn. For now, however, the data suggests traders are betting on more upside.
What’s Next for Bitcoin’s Price?
If holders continue to grip their coins tightly and leveraged traders maintain their bullish stance, Bitcoin could soon challenge $119,367. A successful breakout there opens the door to $122,190, according to TradingView chart data.
But the rally isn’t bulletproof. A dip in conviction could see BTC revisiting support near $111,961, testing whether bulls have the strength to defend their recent gains.
For now, Bitcoin’s story remains one of conviction: long-term holders and risk-hungry traders are aligned, fueling hopes that $120K may be closer than skeptics think.
