Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Traders Eye ‘Big July’ After June Calm
Crypto Options Market Preps for Volatility Surge as Bitcoin, Ethereum Consolidate
After a relatively quiet June, options traders are gearing up for what could be a high-stakes July in the crypto markets — especially for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). With implied volatility cooling off last month, data from decentralized options platform Derive.xyz suggests market participants are now positioning for sharper price moves in the weeks ahead.
"Traders are betting on a big July," said Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, in a Friday market note. "Volatility was suppressed in June, but with positioning now split and macro conditions shifting, the stage is set for potential breakouts."
June Recap: Geopolitical Tensions, But Low Volatility
June saw heightened geopolitical anxiety — including brief military escalations in the Middle East — that rattled markets but didn’t trigger the kind of extreme price swings many feared. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 during flare-ups on June 13 and 22 but quickly recovered to around $107,000. Ethereum hovered near $2,600, save for a sharp dip to $2,200 during peak tension.
Despite the war scares, the 30-day implied volatility (IV) for Bitcoin fell from 44% to 36%, while Ether’s IV dropped from 68% to 60%. The muted response suggested markets were already pricing in the likelihood that conflict wouldn’t spiral out of control.
“Traders anticipated that hostilities would be contained,” Dawson explained. “The limited spikes in volatility were telling.”
July Outlook: Market Poised for Breakout Moves
Looking ahead, Derive’s analysts see growing potential for bullish momentum, particularly for Ethereum. While their internal models assign just a 10% probability that Bitcoin will break above $130,000 by the end of August, trader positioning reflects growing conviction around key levels on both sides of the price spectrum.
About 50% of all open interest expiring July 25 is clustered in Bitcoin $130K–$135K calls and $85K–$90K puts — signaling expectations of either a breakout or breakdown.
Ethereum’s options data leans more decisively bullish. On Derive, nearly 80% of July call interest is positioned above $3,000, with close to 30% of contracts targeting $3,500 or higher.
Dawson noted that Robinhood’s announcement to tokenize stocks and launch a Layer 2 chain on Arbitrum could give ETH a real-world narrative boost that aligns with the current momentum.
Macro Headwinds: Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fade
A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report added complexity to the outlook. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1%, beating expectations and reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates this month.
According to BRN analyst Valentin Fournier, the data “erased hopes for a dovish pivot” at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Market odds of a rate hold in July are now 95%, up sharply from 65% earlier in the cycle, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
While that may cool some enthusiasm in broader markets, crypto remains poised to react to any surprises from the Fed — or fresh geopolitical shocks.