Bernstein has lifted its price target on Figure Technology Solutions, signaling growing confidence in the blockchain-based lender’s business model and growth outlook. The research and brokerage firm raised its target to $72 from $54 and named the stock its top investment idea for 2026, pointing to accelerating growth and improving operating efficiency.
The revised target suggests about 38% upside from Figure’s closing price of $52.23 on Monday. Bernstein has maintained an outperform rating on the stock since it began coverage in October.
Founded by SoFi co-founder Mike Cagney, Figure has emerged as one of the largest independent, non-bank providers of home equity lines of credit in the United States. The company went public on the Nasdaq in September, positioning itself as a technology-driven alternative to traditional lenders.
In a note to clients, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said Figure is benefiting from disruption in the banking sector and increasing regulatory clarity around digital assets in the U.S. They highlighted the proposed Clarity Act, a crypto market structure bill, as a potential tailwind. By replacing legacy banking systems with blockchain-based infrastructure, Figure is building what Bernstein views as a more efficient and scalable credit platform.
The firm said Figure’s recent performance has exceeded even its optimistic forecasts. Growth has been supported by a partner-led marketplace model and steady expansion beyond its core HELOC business. In the fourth quarter, total consumer loan marketplace volume reached about $2.7 billion. Nearly half of that activity came from Figure Connect, the company’s tokenized credit marketplace.
Expansion beyond HELOCs
Bernstein pointed to Figure’s push into new lending products as an important driver of future growth. These include debt-service coverage ratio loans, small business loans, and crypto-backed lending. While still early, these categories are expected to become a meaningful share of the company’s overall volume over time.
The analysts also noted Figure’s longer-term plans in tokenized equities. The company intends to tokenize its own shares as part of a proposed secondary market offering. Bernstein described this initiative as a source of future optionality rather than an immediate revenue contributor.
Other parts of the ecosystem are also scaling quickly. Figure’s yield-bearing stablecoin, YLDS, grew sharply quarter over quarter, rising from about $21 million to roughly $328 million after expanding integrations, including with the Solana blockchain. Meanwhile, its Democratized Prime lending marketplace increased outstanding balances to around $206 million in the fourth quarter, up from roughly $1 million in the prior quarter.
Financial outlook and valuation
Looking ahead, Bernstein forecasts net revenue to climb from about $511 million in 2025 to approximately $945 million by 2027. Over the same period, adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to expand from around 50% to roughly 60%, reflecting the benefits of Figure’s capital-light marketplace model.
By 2027, the analysts expect newer loan products to represent about 20% of origination volumes, with Figure Connect processing close to 60% of total loans.
The $72 price target is based on a blended valuation of around 25 times estimated 2027 EBITDA and roughly 40 times projected 2027 earnings. Bernstein said it kept valuation multiples unchanged but raised its forecasts to account for stronger-than-expected execution.
While the firm acknowledged risks related to broader economic conditions and the pace of expansion beyond HELOCs, it concluded that Figure is well positioned to benefit from rising demand for blockchain-based credit infrastructure in 2026 and beyond.
