Analysts at Bernstein are predicting a major expansion for Circle’s USDC stablecoin, estimating its supply will nearly triple by the end of 2027 and command roughly 33% of the total stablecoin market. The firm expects Circle to emerge as a key winner under the United States’ new regulatory framework for stablecoins.
In a note to clients, Bernstein’s research team led by Gautam Chhugani highlighted USDC’s growing momentum. The token’s market share has climbed 6% over the past 18 months to reach 29% today, and analysts believe it will continue gaining ground as investors and payment platforms gravitate toward fully regulated, dollar-backed tokens.
At present, Tether’s USDT remains the dominant player, holding about 62% of the sector’s $290 billion total market cap, according to data. USDC follows with approximately $76 billion in circulation, while USDe, Dai, and USDS trail with smaller supplies.
Bernstein attributed Circle’s competitive edge to its compliance-first model, broad exchange integrations, and strong liquidity presence. Circle currently operates across 28 blockchains and maintains deep partnerships with Coinbase, Binance, and OKX. The firm estimated that Circle processed $3 trillion in USDC transactions during the first half of 2025 — a 120% increase from the previous year.
Regulatory Boost from the GENIUS Act
The analysts pointed to the GENIUS Act, passed in July, as a turning point for Circle. The new law introduces a federal framework for payment stablecoins, limiting foreign issuers and classifying these assets as digital cash rather than securities. Bernstein said the legislation favors U.S.-based issuers like Circle, which already provides full cash and Treasury backing, daily reserve disclosures, and independent attestations.
As a result, the firm described USDC as the largest regulated stablecoin globally, ideally positioned to partner with banks and payment processors that require compliant digital payment infrastructure.
Market Outlook and Financial Resilience
Bernstein expects the stablecoin market to grow to $670 billion by 2027, with USDC’s share reaching $220 billion. Growth will likely be supported by new integrations with Fiserv, FIS, Corpay, and Shopify, expanding USDC’s role in both crypto and traditional finance.
Other entrants, including PayPal’s PYUSD and Tether’s U.S. subsidiary, USAT, face what analysts called “cold-start liquidity challenges,” due to fewer exchange connections and less established user bases.
Although Circle’s revenue remains tied to interest income from reserves, potential rate cuts — projected to bring interest rates down to around 3% by 2027 — are not expected to significantly hinder earnings. Bernstein noted that non-interest income from cross-chain transfers and network fees has already risen from 1% of revenue in 2024 to 4% in early 2025, helping offset rate pressure.
Overall, the firm forecasts Circle’s revenue to grow 47% annually through 2027, supported by a 71% compound growth rate in USDC supply as its infrastructure scales globally.
Looking Ahead: The Digital Dollar Era
Bernstein’s long-term outlook sees stablecoins reshaping global finance, projecting total supply could reach $4 trillion by 2035. USDC is expected to maintain a 30% share, anchored by innovations like the Circle Payments Network and its proprietary blockchain, Arc.
“Digital dollars will form the money rail of the internet, and Circle is best positioned given its head start,” the analysts wrote.
They reiterated an outperform rating on Circle’s stock with a $230 price target, implying a 67% upside from Monday’s close at $137.47.
