Gemini’s decision to pull back from several international markets is drawing fresh optimism from Wall Street analysts, even as the broader crypto sector faces ongoing volatility.
Shares of Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) traded near $7.60 on Thursday, recovering slightly after hitting a record low of $6.35 earlier in the week. The stock has been under pressure alongside other crypto-related equities, weighed down by a wider selloff across both digital assets and traditional markets.
Against that backdrop, analysts at Mizuho argue that Gemini’s latest restructuring could mark a turning point.
A strategic retreat with financial upside
Earlier this week, the Winklevoss-founded crypto exchange announced plans to wind down operations in the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Australia. The company will also reduce its workforce by about 25% as it refocuses on its core markets, primarily the United States and Singapore.
In a new analyst note, Mizuho described the move as “margin-accretive,” suggesting the retreat from overseas markets could help Gemini accelerate its path toward profitability. Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins said the firm is stepping back from costly geographic expansion and concentrating on regions with clearer regulatory frameworks and stronger institutional demand.
Mizuho reiterated its Outperform rating on GEMI and maintained a $26 price target, implying significant upside from current levels.
Sharper focus, clearer regulation
According to the analysts, narrowing Gemini’s footprint should allow the company to deploy its compliance, legal, and operational resources more efficiently. The U.S. and Singapore are seen as jurisdictions with more predictable licensing regimes, which could reduce friction and support long-term growth.
The restructuring is expected to result in roughly $11 million in charges in the first quarter. However, Mizuho expects expenses to decline later this year, with operating leverage improving by the second half of 2026.
Profitability has long been a point of concern for investors following Gemini, and the analysts view this reset as a meaningful step toward addressing that issue.
Bull case points to triple-digit gains
While Mizuho’s base case sees the stock moving toward $26, the firm also outlined a more optimistic scenario. If Gemini delivers stronger user growth and reaches profitability faster than expected, shares could climb to around $43. That would represent more than 400% upside from recent trading levels.
This bullish outlook stands in contrast to mixed investor sentiment toward crypto exchanges more broadly. In a recent Mizuho survey, both retail and institutional investors showed a preference for fintech stocks over crypto-native companies heading into 2026. Views on crypto exchanges were split between potential winners and laggards.
Even so, Mizuho continues to see reasons for confidence in Gemini’s longer-term prospects.
U.S. expansion and new revenue streams
Gemini has been expanding its U.S. presence, most recently receiving approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in December to launch regulated prediction markets. Mizuho views this business, along with Gemini’s institutional custody services, as key areas where the company can defend its market position and potentially gain share.
Taken together, analysts believe these initiatives, combined with tighter cost controls, could improve Gemini’s earnings profile over time.
Looking ahead
Gemini’s exit from several overseas markets may look like a step back on the surface, but analysts argue it could be a necessary reset. By focusing on fewer regions with clearer rules and stronger demand, the exchange may be better positioned to stabilize its finances and rebuild investor confidence. For shareholders watching a beaten-down stock, the next few quarters could prove pivotal.
