Altcoins Rapidly Decline Against Bitcoin: New Study Reveals Alarming Trends
A new study from Bitcoin-focused financial firm Swan has shed light on a concerning trend for altcoin investors: the vast majority of alternative cryptocurrencies are losing value at a staggering pace when measured against Bitcoin (BTC). The findings reinforce Bitcoin's reputation as a more resilient asset in the volatile digital currency landscape.
According to Swan's analysis, which examined the performance of the top 300 altcoins over the past five years, most altcoins suffer a 90% drop in value relative to Bitcoin within 10 to 20 months after reaching their all-time highs (ATHs). This systemic decline challenges the perception that altcoins offer a meaningful hedge or alternative to BTC.
“Altcoins don’t just underperform Bitcoin. They collapse against it,” Swan stated in a detailed thread on X (formerly Twitter).
The fastest collapses included Terra (LUNA1), Ontology Gas (ONG), and Bitgert (BRISE), all of which lost 90% of their value in under two months. Even well-established altcoins like Cardano (ADA), XRP, and Litecoin (LTC) eventually followed the trend—though more slowly—highlighting that size or popularity does not guarantee resilience. For example, Litecoin took 69 months to reach the same level of depreciation, while Monero (XMR) took six years.
Swan also reported that among 45 altcoins that have yet to reach the 90% drawdown mark, the average loss still stands at 76% from their peak value. Even the best-performing among them is down 43% compared to Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin remains the benchmark for capital preservation,” the report added. “These assets don’t hedge Bitcoin — they bleed against it.”
A key insight from the study involves what’s known as survivorship bias—the tendency to focus only on successful projects while ignoring the many that have failed. Swan argues that this bias has obscured the broader, less favorable reality of the altcoin market.
John Haar, an executive at Swan, noted wryly, “With performance like this, it’s astonishing that altcoins continue to exist. Then again, humans love gambling.”
Compounding the issue is the sheer number of new altcoins entering the market. CoinMarketCap data shows over 1.8 million tokens have been created in the past month alone, a figure that raises questions about sustainability. BeInCrypto further reported that 89% of tokens listed on Binance in 2025 are trading in the red.
This rapid expansion is leading to a dilution of market liquidity, with many new tokens failing to offer long-term utility or value. Analysts suggest that the concept of a recurring “altcoin season” — a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin — may be becoming obsolete.
Instead, Bitcoin’s growing dominance, institutional backing, and regulatory clarity are positioning it as the primary store of value in the digital asset space. As such, many altcoins are struggling to maintain relevance amid Bitcoin’s continued rise.