Bitcoin may have smashed past $120,000, but data from August suggests the rally is far from over. Three rare on-chain and market metrics — often seen at the start of major bull runs — are flashing green. Analysts say they could mark the early stages of “Bitcoin Season.”
1. Futures-to-Spot Ratio Hits Multi-Year Low
The Futures-to-Spot Ratio — which tracks how much trading is happening in derivatives versus the spot market — has dropped to its lowest level since October 2022, according to Swissblock.
A falling ratio means more investors are buying Bitcoin directly rather than speculating through futures contracts. This is often a sign of strong conviction from large-scale buyers, sometimes called “massive allocators.”
Swissblock notes that the last time the ratio hit similar lows, Bitcoin was bottoming out near the end of 2022 — just before it went on to break $100,000. “The $120.5K breakout target has been hit, now what? Price momentum is aligning… yes, macro volatility is expected, but with momentum igniting, we go higher,” the firm said.
2. Bitcoin Dominates CEX Trading Volumes
The second bullish sign comes from centralized exchanges. The Bitcoin-to-altcoin spot trading volume ratio has surged to 3 — its highest since July 2022, according to CryptoQuant.
When this number climbs, it typically signals that capital is flowing back into Bitcoin at the expense of altcoins, a pattern often seen at the start of strong BTC-led rallies. In past cycles, the ratio has reached as high as 5, marking peak Bitcoin dominance phases.
3. Taker Buy-Sell Ratio Shows Fresh Demand
The Taker Buy-Sell Ratio, which measures aggressive buying versus selling by market order initiators, has also turned decisively bullish.
CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk explains that a reading above 1 shows buying pressure outweighing selling. In August, the ratio hit 1.21 — its highest level since March — and moved above its 7-day average, a sign of strengthening demand from active traders.
What It Means for the Market
With all three indicators — a record-low Futures-to-Spot Ratio, a rising Bitcoin dominance in exchange volumes, and a bullish Taker Buy-Sell Ratio — aligning at once, analysts say the August rally could just be getting started.
Still, caution remains. A drop below $118,900 could undermine the short-term bullish outlook, but for now, the data points to a market where Bitcoin is firmly back in the driver’s seat.
